Like the rest of the world, Africans were deeply invested in the face-off between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris during the 60th United States Presidential election that Trump eventually won in November 2024. For the African diasporans in the US who would directly feel the impact of the power transition and those still residing in their home countries, the pendulum of the world’s topmost executive power is a necessary interest.

This isn’t misplaced. Decisions made in the White House ripple far beyond the US borders, influencing economies, health systems, defence, power dynamics, and more globally. For Africa — a region historically tethered to the machinations of imperialism and persistently ensnared in the grip of neocolonial superpowers — the US presidential outcome has always been more than just a foreign affair, as it provides an indication of whether the elected leader will enable, uphold, or reverse policies that have direct effects on the continent.

Over the past two decades, every US president has left a distinct mark on US-Africa relations. In 2000, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the major trade and investment pact between the United States and Africa, was signed into law by President Bill Clinton. Successive administrations have periodically reviewed AGOA, with its most recent extension in 2015 granting it a 10-year renewal set to expire in September 2025, subject to further review.

President George Bush in 2003 established the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has disbursed over $100 billion to combat HIV/AIDS in Africa. PEPFAR, the largest commitment by any nation in history to fight a disease, has been upheld by four subsequent administrations since Bush left office in 2009.

As the first African-American president, Barack Obama initiated several key initiatives over his two-term presidency: Power Africa and Feed the Future initiatives, aimed at tackling chronic electricity deficiency and food insecurity across the continent. In 2014, Obama introduced the inaugural US-Africa Leaders Summit, designed to foster stronger ties and dialogue. Although his successor, Trump, showed little interest in continuing the multinational summit, the Joe Biden administration revived the summit in 2022, with a focus on sustainable partnerships that benefit Africa.

At the three-day US-Africa summit in December 2022 at Washington, 49 leaders of Africa’s 58 countries were present as Biden promised an “America all-in on Africa’s future” plan. Funding commitments included $500 million for infrastructure in Niger and Benin, $350 million to boost the continent’s digital economy, and approximately $15 billion in business deals signed during the forum. This totalled about $55 billion, as Jake Sullivan, the then National Security Adviser, explained, to be committed to the continent over the next three years in areas like health, women’s empowerment, and sustainability.

Three years on, there has been a distinct shift in the Oval Office, with Biden’s predecessor, Trump, defeating his VP, Harris, for a final term until 2028. America will certainly be on a different track for the next four years, but what does this portend for Africa?

A brief detour to US-Africa relations during Trump’s first presidency between 2017 and 2021, as well as his apparent perception of Africa, might help arrive at a clearer view.

For starters, Trump has not been the biggest advocate for Africa and most marginalised communities. He was reported to have called the continent, Haiti, and El Salvador “shithole” countries during a closed-door immigration policy discussion in January 2018. Though the Republican denied the allegations via a tweet claiming his language was tough but taken out of context, it lends a little flesh to why Biden described him as the first racist US president in the buildup to the 2020 US Presidential election.

Add to the point, Trump’s first administration discontinued the Africa-US Summit laid out by Obama’s government. Trump was also notoriously bullish on stringent immigration policies that affected Muslim-majority countries, including some in Africa. If not for the bipartisan structure of the US Congress which stood firm against Trump’s Office of Management and Budget proposals to significantly reduce foreign assistance, his first tenure might have left Africa reeling, particularly in the health and security sectors where the continent has been heavily reliant on the US.

But amidst Trump’s rather obvious notion of how his country should hold Africa, some of his policies — or better stated, US-Africa relations — under his first administration left room for commendation. Notable among these, as highlighted by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), was Prosper Africa, designed to assist US companies seeking business opportunities in Africa, and his support for democratic advancements in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo (to ease Joseph Kabila out of power), Sudan (to facilitate recovery from toppling Omar al-Bashir), and Cameroon (in efforts to end its civil war). First Lady Melania Trump also visited four African countries, focusing on maternal healthcare, education, and anti-bullying initiatives.

These, however, did little to improve Africa’s soured view of the US, particularly in the initial stages of his first term. Now, in the early days of his second, ominous signs suggest things might not improve.

Africa barely featured in Trump’s second-term campaign rhetoric and inaugural speech, except for his reiterated vow to deport undocumented migrants. Despite breaking the tradition of inviting only domestic leaders to a US presidential inauguration ceremony, African leaders were conspicuously absent from Trump’s invite list to the Capitol Rotunda ceremony on Monday evening. Argentina’s Javier Milei, China’s President Xi Jinping, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa, and former Brazilian and Polish leaders Jair Bolsonaro and Mateusz Morawiecki were all invited, per Al Jazeera.

It’s the eccentric Trump we all know — the one now drawing the world’s richest men and disruptors into his orbit. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg — who once banned Trump from Facebook and Instagram after his posts supporting the January 2021 riots — has shifted his platform’s content moderation stance to suit Trump’s conservative ideologies. Alphabet and Google’s Sundar Pichai also took a hard stance in 2021 by suspending Trump’s YouTube account over the same issue, yet he also appears to have bent the knee.

Previously disinterested in theTrump’s first presidential ambition, the three wealthiest men in the world  Zuckerberg, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, and Trump’s 2024 campaign’s biggest supporter, Elon Musk, were in the company of other tech titans, including Apple’s Tim Cook and TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at the inauguration. 

The only significant presence from Africa was religious and, to a large extent, inconsequential to the overall narrative. Nigerian cleric William Kumuyi, the General Superintendent of the Deeper Christian Life Ministry featured in the prayer service for the US President, while singer Nathaniel Bassey performed at the US Presidential Inaugural Prayer Breakfast outside the official inauguration schedule.

The extent to which Trump’s inauguration ceremony reflects his disregard for African relations is still debated. However, some of his flurry of executive orders early in his second term appear unfavourable to the continent, even if they weren’t explicitly intended to negatively impact it.

Trump has resumed his crackdown on immigration, with a move to end birthright citizenship. While this raises alarms for African diasporans and intending immigrants, Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the World Health Organization (WHO) for its “mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic” spells a grim outlook for Africa and its health systems that are heavily dependent on global collaborations.

Dr Githinji Gitahi, CEO of Amref Health Africa, the largest health development non-governmental organisation based on the continent, weighed in on the development’s peril, saying, “The US withdrawal from WHO is a step backwards for global health. It risks reversing decades of progress, weakening Africa’s health systems, and leaving the world less safe from disease outbreaks.”

From an African point of view, these developments are deeply troubling. But from the broader scheme of things, it’s not necessarily about dunking on the continent, it’s more about Trump advancing his “America first” agenda, as he advances his seemingly God-sent mission to return the country to its golden era.

The silver lining here has been a central theme of the preceding paragraphs: America’s interest in Africa has significantly waned post-Obama. Trump initiated this decline during his first term, and Biden’s administration, despite some efforts, couldn’t reinvigorate it. With Trump back and his priorities unchanged, the next four years might not spell catastrophe for Africa barring unforeseen circumstances.

Currently, the Asian contingent led by China and Russia and increasingly joined by India, are apparently outpacing the US in the geostrategic race for influence in Africa, especially in the economic and infrastructure aid. Africa fostering better relationships with these US alternatives is hardly a bad thing, especially since the US’s interest is expected to keep on waning. But the issue with this historical positioning for handdowns is that it does little to solve Africa’s all too familiar and age-old problems.