Coming off the 2-0 victory over Rwanda last Friday, it seemed as though the Super Eagles of Nigeria were on course to complete the first phase of their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification redemption until a late twist against the Warriors of Zimbabwe at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo on Tuesday flipped the script.  

Victor Osimhen’s 74th-minute header had put Nigeria in pole position for victory, but their defensive frailties finally caught up with them in the 90th minute when substitute Tawanda Chirewa equalised for Zimbabwe, sending Nigeria’s World Cup qualification hopes up in flames.  

Now, after six matches in the 10-game qualifying series, the Super Eagles sit fourth in Africa’s Group C with just seven points — one win, four draws, and one loss. They are six points adrift of group leaders South Africa who currently occupy the only automatic qualification spot.  

South Africa’s 12-point tally could still be reduced by three due to a reported breach involving an ineligible player in their last win over the Benin Republic. But even if that deduction happens, Nigeria’s qualification hopes remain bleak. Logical projections give them less than a 5 percent chance of making it to the 2026 World Cup despite the four qualifiers left to play.  

At this stage where direct qualification has virtually slipped away, Nigeria’s only hope rests on finishing among the best four second-placed teams to secure a spot in the intercontinental playoffs.

Securing three points on Tuesday would have taken Nigeria to second place with 10 points, but they’d still trail far behind the top second-placed teams across the continent.

Currently, Gabon leads the second-place playoff standings with 15 points, followed by Namibia and Mozambique with 12 points each. Nigeria, with just eight points, remains a long way from breaking into that category.

Ultimately, with Eric Chelle being the fourth manager to oversee Nigeria’s qualifying campaign, the Super Eagles’ poor run of just one win in seven matches all but confirms their absence from the 2026 World Cup. This would mark the first time in history that Nigeria misses back-to-back World Cups, having also failed to qualify for the 2022 edition.