Nigeria has come a long way since the 2003 general election, when voter turnout reached a high of 69.1%, up from 52.3% in the 1999 elections that ushered in the current era of democratic rule. Since that record high, turnout has declined steadily: 57.4% in 2007, 53.7% in 2011, 43.6% in 2015, 34.8% in 2019, and 26.7% in 2023. If this disturbing trend continues, voter turnout in the 2027 elections may sink below 20%.

Research has identified electoral violence, voter intimidation, and ballot fraud as major factors contributing to low turnout. When voters face violence from state-sponsored thugs or witness disparities between results uploaded to the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV) and those declared by returning officers, they inevitably lose faith in the system and many choose to stay home next time.

However, many stakeholders are hopeful that the new INEC Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, SAN, can restore confidence in Nigerian elections. Amupitan, who was sworn into office on Thursday, October 23, 2025, has pledged to defend the constitution and uphold Nigeria’s electoral laws while delivering credible, free, and fair elections. Yet, such elections will not emerge from promises alone, they require strong, efficient laws that close the loopholes politicians exploit to manipulate outcomes and seize power.

After civil society organisations (CSOs) blamed the Electoral Act 2022 for the controversies surrounding the 2023 elections, both chambers of the National Assembly are now reviewing the law and racing to replace it with stronger legislation before year’s end. Already, CSOs driving electoral reforms, including Yiaga Africa, the Centre for Media and Society (CEMESO), the International Press Centre, and the Youth Electoral Reform Project (YERP-Naija) consortium led by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), have proposed far-reaching amendments to ensure a more transparent, inclusive, and technology-driven process. At the heart of their demands is the compulsory electronic transmission of results, which would close a critical loophole in the 2022 Electoral Act.

Although the current law encourages the electronic transmission of results through IReV, it does not make the process mandatory. This ambiguity sowed doubt in the 2023 elections after INEC justified disparities between uploaded and declared results by insisting that only certified copies of election results are legally binding. The IReV system was introduced to promote trust and transparency, but it became counterproductive when discrepancies emerged between what was uploaded at polling units and what was later declared as final results. Many feared that results were tampered with after being uploaded to the INEC portal, further eroding public confidence.

To address this, CSOs are advocating for an amendment making electronic transmission from polling units mandatory, with such results admissible as evidence in court during post-election disputes. The reform groups also want pre- and post-election petitions concluded before winners are sworn in, clear resolutions to ambiguities in result collation and transmission, and the introduction of early voting for Nigerians deployed on essential election duties — such as security officers, INEC staff, accredited journalists, and observers — allowing them to vote before election day. Each of these reforms could strengthen voter confidence, but the INEC chairman faces a daunting task in ensuring the National Assembly enacts them.

As it stands, Amupitan and other INEC officials have limited powers to enforce electoral rules or guarantee smooth elections. For instance, when politicians deploy thugs to disrupt voting, INEC has no direct control over law enforcement to intervene. Therefore, to truly restore confidence in the electoral system and boost turnout in 2027, Amupitan must work closely with the National Assembly and President Bola Tinubu to ensure the commission is properly empowered. At his swearing-in ceremony, Tinubu charged him to ensure credible polls, but in practice, that will require maximum cooperation from the president to guarantee that security agencies remain neutral and alert to violent disruptors during the elections.

Amupitan must also be willing to acknowledge systemic deficiencies and act decisively to correct them. At his confirmation hearing, he promised a comprehensive audit of the commission, particularly its logistics operations during the 2023 general elections. He said the audit would identify challenges and develop practical solutions in collaboration with relevant stakeholders. If Amupitan can be transparent about the commission’s shortcomings and take concrete steps to fix them, he stands a real chance of reviving public trust in Nigeria’s electoral system and helping the country reverse its troubling trend of declining voter turnout in 2027.