Over the past couple of years, virtually every product and service in Nigeria has experienced volatile price hikes. From government-regulated products like petroleum and electricity to private services like real estate and property management, the increment in these once-basic necessities is beyond staggering. The National Bureau of Statistics reported in October 2024 that inflation had surged to 33.88%, up from 27.33% in 2023.

Amid these economic challenges, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), better known as telecommunication operators, have maintained the same service pricing they’ve had since 2011. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), which is responsible for evaluating and approving tariff adjustment requests in the telecom sector, has consistently denied the operators’ proposals for price increases. The efforts of these telco giants have intensified in recent times due to the harsh economic headwinds and its impact on revenues. MTN, for instance, reported a net loss of about N514.93 billion for the nine months ending in September 2024, while Airtel’s revenue also dropped by 46.9% to $755 million within the same timeframe.

It, however, seems a moment of respite was on the horizon for the telecom giants when several December 2024 reports suggested that the NCC will approve an increment in tariff plans—for calls, internet, and SMS bundles—effective from January 2025.

Nigeria’s Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani, lent weight to the report in a discussion with Arise TV, where he said, “We think there may be a need for that.

“Beyond the conversation about an increase in tariff, there is so much that we need to do as a country to ensure that the sector is competitive,” Dr. Tijani added.

For the telcos, the request for immediate price adjustments has become a unifying factor despite the competitive nature of their operations. The telcos consortium,  Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), amplified this demand in a statement issued by its Chairman, Mr Gbenga Adebayo, at the end of 2024, urging the NCC to reconsider its position.

“As we reflect on the end of year 2024, there is a need to issue an urgent and critical call to action for the future of our telecommunications industry.

“Tariffs must be reviewed to reflect the economic realities of delivering telecoms services at a minimum for industry sustainability,” he said.

ALTON’s statement was an implicit response to rumours suggesting that the NCC was either backing down or denying claims of approving tariff increases in January. However, these rumours are beginning to gain traction, even though the NCC has yet to make an official statement. An undisclosed source from the NCC reportedly told The Nation that the commission has no plans to approve tariff increments in January, and by extension, in Q1 of 2025.

The source’s reasons for the NCC’s stance were drawn from three main points: the current absence of a management board to evaluate a review, the President’s inaction, and the need for a minimum three-month implementation period to adequately prepare everyone, especially consumers, for the changes. Given these insights, the telcos’ hope for a tariff increase in January or Q1 of 2025 appears slim. However, considering Starlink’s recent subscription price hikes, the MNOs may have a real chance in 2025.

It was a dramatic turn in October 2024 when disruptive internet service provider Starlink, which entered the Nigerian market in 2023, announced an almost 100% hike in its subscription prices, in response to the inflation rampaging nationwide. Consequently, the NCC rebuked the Elon Musk-owned satellite ISP for bypassing its approval and breaching the licensing agreement. The regulator even threatened sanctions but surprisingly backtracked hours later, instructing media outlets to retract their reports on the matter.

The backlash forced Stralink to withdraw its price hike plans about three weeks after the initial announcement. However, the Musk-owned ISP is now set to implement the previously announced price increase from January 27, 2025. Starlink’s monthly package for residential housing will rise from N38,000 to N75,000. Other packages will also see significant hikes, with mobile global roaming service increasing to N717,000 per month, and mobile regional roaming rising to N167,000, while the cost of Starlink hardware will increase from N440,000 to N590,000.

Since this was communicated to its over 20,000 Nigerian customers on December 27 via email, and there hasn’t been any counter-response from the NCC, it clearly indicates that Starlink has received standing approval from the NCC. 

With the NCC’s quick approval of Starlink’s price hike, the telecom operators would have questions that need answers. However, none should be as pressing for them as: what are we doing wrong?

One could certainly make a strong case that Starlink’s approved hike exemplifies NCC’s double standards, but the telecom giants, for whom one would argue, are barely deserving of such efforts considering their long-standing reputation for subpar services. Since Starlink entered the Nigerian market about two years ago, its services, though premium-priced, have made a world of difference for its users. Expectations are high that further service improvements will be made, extending to the underserved and unserved communities in Nigeria, as long as they can afford the equivalent financial demands of the service.

The financial disconnect between the telcos and their 154.9 million active Nigerian users may partially explain the poor state of connectivity, with internet speeds ranking among the lowest in Africa’s top 15 markets, as revealed by The Guardian. Nonetheless, if TechCabal’s report on the proposed tariff hikes of up to 40% materialises, the important question remains—will higher prices lead to better services?

The NCC’s delay in approving the hike doesn’t appear to stem from consumer interest or dissatisfaction with telcos’ services. And it’s increasingly evident that these stalled price adjustments are inevitable, even if they come later. Whenever they’re implemented, however, the NCC and the telcos must be guided by the understanding that a tariff increase without a significant improvement in service quality would be yet another disservice to Nigerians.